National weather forecast and temperatures: Friday, January 24
A fresh series of western disturbances is expected to influence the weather not just over North and East India, but also over other parts of the country in the coming days. The first one should be seen in action from Monday, a day after Republic Day. This system may cause fairly widespread to widespread rain/snow over the hills of North-West India on Tuesday and Wednesday (January 28 and 29) with isolated heavy falls; and scattered to fairly widespread rain/thunderstorm over the plains during the same period.
Scattered to fairly widespread rain/thunderstorms are forecast over Uttar Pradesh from Tuesday and over Bihar and the adjoining East from Wednesday. In its outlook for next Tuesday, the US Navy Global Environmental model saw rain/thundershowers breaking out over the western parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and adjoining Nepal, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Bihar, parts of Odisha and even Tamil Nadu.
Rains for parts of Tamil Nadu next week?
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction agreed with the outlook, and went on to forecast more thundershowers for most of Tamil Nadu and adjoining Central and South Kerala from January 31 to February 8.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicated that the second, moderately strong western disturbance will set up a perch over Iran by January 30 (Thursday). It will then cross over into Afghanistan and Pakistan before reaching North-West India by February 1, even as a third successive disturbance sets itself into motion in the rear, pulling into Iran by February 2 (Sunday). The system is, however, forecast to weaken a bit as it checks into Iraq the very next day.
It is during the pendency of these disturbances over North-West India and East India, that the US agency cited above sees rains breaking out over Tamil Nadu and Kerala, suggesting the possibility of associated westerlies dipping into the South and interacting with the north-easterlies/easterlies from the Bay of Bengal.
Leading Chennai-based blogger @ChennaiRains gave out a likely snapshot as follows:
