Impending Western Disturbance to Bring Heavy Rain and Snowfall to Jammu and Kashmir
A robust Western Disturbance is poised to impact Jammu and Kashmir from the 18th to the 20th of February, heralding a period of significant precipitation across the Union Territory. Meteorologists anticipate moderate to extremely heavy rain and snowfall across most regions, with the likelihood of transformative weather conditions in the forecast.
Initially, the plains will experience rain showers, with a potential transition to snowfall expected by the evening of the 18th or on the 19th of February, particularly in certain areas. The highest probability of snowfall is projected for north Kashmir, while central and south Kashmir are expected to see predominately rainy conditions. Nevertheless, the persistent heavy rainfall increases the possibility of snowfall due to evaporational cooling, making early snowfall a plausible occurrence.
The precise amount of snowfall remains uncertain for individual locations; however, probabilities have been outlined for different regions. North Kashmir stands at a 65% chance of snowfall, predominantly on the evening of the 18th or the following day. In central and south Kashmir, the likelihood stands at 40% and 50%, respectively, with potential snowfall on the 18th evening or the 19th, contingent upon continued heavy rainfall, with a similar scenario for the 20th.
The anticipated snowfall is expected to be of high density, with accumulations posing potential risks of damage. In the upper reaches of north Kashmir, snow accumulation over the three-day period could range from 2 to 7 feet, while in central and south Kashmir’s higher elevations, accumulation may range from 1 to 5 feet.
Moreover, the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway is at a heightened risk of shooting stones and landslides, potentially leading to disruptions in travel. Consequently, it is strongly advised to postpone any journeys planned between the 18th and 21st of February, ensuring safety amidst the anticipated inclement weather conditions.
