OPINION: Engineer Rashid’s Gamble in Kashmir Elections

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By: Dr Umer Iqbal
Engineer Rashid, known for his soft separatism has consistently challenged both local and national narratives that undermine the “autonomy” and “rights of the Kashmiri people”. As the founder of the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), he has been vocal on various issues, while his politics have sparked both support and controversy, it will be interesting to see if the Rashid’s AIP and the commitment he is making to represent the aspirations of ordinary Kashmiris sets AIP apart in the region’s complex political landscape.
Engineer Rashid’s decision to field candidates across almost all constituencies in Kashmir, despite the likelihood of losses, represents a calculated political gamble. He seems to be attempting to transition from being a symbol of emotional defiance to a more structured political force to influence the region’s future. Whether this strategy pays off in the long run remains to be seen, but it is clear that Rashid is preparing to play a larger role in the political landscape of Kashmir, one that could redefine his position and that of his party in the years to come.
Engineer Rashid’s politics have often been seen as controversial, with some critics labeling as ambiguous or opportunistic. While he portrays himself as a staunch advocate for Kashmiri rights, his shifting alliances and unpredictable stances have raised questions about his consistency. For instance, he has, at times, supported dialogue with the Indian state while simultaneously criticizing its policies harshly. This dual approach has led to confusion about his long-term goals and whether they align with a clear vision for Kashmir’s future.
His political ambiguity could create further division within Kashmir, as people become skeptical of leaders who seem to oscillate between competing narratives. This might weaken the unity of the Kashmirs regional parties and provide room for exploitation by central parties. His confrontational style, while appealing to some, risks alienating moderate voices, potentially sidelining those who seek peaceful and diplomatic solutions to the region’s issues.
In the long run, Rashid’s politics could fragment the already delicate socio-political fabric of Kashmir, further complicating efforts toward a cohesive strategy for achieving political autonomy or addressing the grievances of its people. If his politics remain unclear or inconsistent, it may undermine the credibility of the ‘movement’ he claims to represent, weakening the chances of meaningful progress in the region.
Engineer Rashid’s decision to field candidates from almost every constituency in Kashmir for the upcoming assembly elections marks a significant shift in his political strategy. Having secured a parliamentary seat recently, largely due to the emotional vote he garnered while incarcerated, Rashid’s political narrative at the time resonated with the sentiments of a populace that saw him as a symbol of defiance against the Indian state. His victory was seen as a reflection of Kashmiri people’s emotional response to his imprisonment and the broader political climate. As change is the law of nature, so this time a different political scenario can be seen post election results, where many candidates of AIP may even lose their deposits, and that will give an idea to the AIP that relying solely on emotions can’t be a sole factor of winning elections. Fielding candidates from almost every constituency appears that Rashid is attempting to transform his political influence into a structured and widespread movement, aiming to establish his party, Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), as a “significant force” in the region. But the fact is that Rashid needs to move beyond the politics of emotions and symbolism. By fielding candidates across Kashmir, he is likely acknowledging the need for a more organized political structure to challenge the dominance of established parties. Many candidates will fail to win, but his goal is to lay the groundwork for future elections, allowing his party to gain a foothold in Kashmir’s political landscape.
Rashid is politically mature enough to capitalize on the changing dynamics viz the central government’s political maneuvers in Kashmir, including the revocation of Article 370. Rashid saw this as an opportunity to push his agenda through his AIP, offering a ‘narrative’ that counters the pro-India parties while presenting himself as a viable alternative to ‘separatist politics in mainstream politics’. He is perhaps banking on the growing discontent among Kashmiris who feel disenfranchised by the changes imposed on the region. By contesting in almost every Kashmir based constituencies, he aims to give these voters a choice and send a message of resistance, but believe me the results will be different and opposite to what AIP actually wants.
With the abrogation of Article 370 and the new political framework in place, Rashid’s move could be seen as an attempt to position himself as a significant player in the evolving political setup of Jammu and Kashmir. The loss of special status has opened the door for new political actors to rise, and Rashid likely wants to be at the forefront of this transformation, even if the initial results are not favorable in terms of electoral success. While Rashid knows that many of his candidates will lose their deposits, the move may be a calculated risk aimed at gaining visibility and legitimacy across all of Kashmir. In a political environment where elections are often seen as contests between a few major players, his decision could signal a willingness to challenge the status quo and to create a broader base of support over time, even if it comes at the cost of short-term losses.
Rashid’s strategy might not necessarily be about winning every seat or making immediate electoral gains, but rather about building a “narrative of resilience and defiance”. By fielding candidates in multiple constituencies, he sends a message that he and his party are willing to contest the political space, no matter the “odds”. This could gradually build a “new political culture” in Kashmir, with support of central parties having less shelf-life in Kashmir.

(The views are of the author. He can be mailed at: umerwani99@gmail.com)

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